China's retaliatory tariffs on the United States may cause U.S. oil exports to decline in 2025 for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic, after growth plateaued last year. Exports of U.S. crude have surged more than 10 times since it lifted a 40-year federal ban on the export of domestic oil in 2015.

The tariffs have also provoked political tension, including retaliation from China, which responded to Trump's move with tariffs on US goods and an anti-monopoly probe of Google, among other measures. The speed with which China filed its complaint with the WTO is an indication of Beijing's readiness for the trade fight.